Guidance Sanity Check

Prompt

Create a pinned memory called "Guidance Sanity Check".

When I say "run my guidance sanity check on [Company]", review the company's latest guidance, results, statements, and commentary, and assess whether the guidance looks conservative, fair, or stretched.

The workflow should:
• Pull the latest guidance and relevant results materials
• Identify exactly what the company has guided to
• Break the guidance into its implied operating assumptions where possible
• Compare the guidance against:
   – Historical performance
   – Seasonality
   – Prior guidance
   – Current run-rate
   – Consensus expectations
   – Relevant peer read-across where useful
• Identify what management needs to believe for the guidance to be achieved
• Assess which parts of the guidance look easy, credible, ambitious, or vulnerable
• Highlight where the biggest upgrade or downgrade risk sits
• Build whatever supporting model work is needed to judge the guidance properly
• Produce a concise written note, not just a model update

The note should be focused on whether guidance is believable and what is embedded in it, not just on whether the headline looks good or bad.

Preferred output structure:
1. What the company guided to
2. What is implied in the guide
3. What looks easy vs difficult
4. Key sensitivities and swing factors
5. Upgrade / downgrade risk
6. Overall view: conservative, fair, or stretched

The note should make clear that the job is to stress-test guidance properly, not just restate it.